More about Kondratiev

I have had time only today to read an interesting post of my colleague Dream Theater on the K cycles and their application to financial markets today.

In this regard, if indeed the turning point and the start of the (super)cycle of economy and markets will be 2010, I think we could certainly call "lucky", given the negative trend of recent months, but also in the light of data released more recently: for example, according to the ADP report of yesterday (see chart below), during the month of December 2008 would have been lost as well as 693mila jobs!

That said, however, I returned to my mind an old post - dating back to 30 July 2007 and inclusive of a comment of Dream Theather - in which I described the theory of the waves of Kondratiev, focusing on economic supercycles during 50 to 60 years, of which the fifth, a.k.a. the Age of informatics and telecommunications, would be still in progress and would have another few decades of life ...

Certainly the events since 2007 easily expose this idea to strong criticism, because today the financial world is considered - by almost everyone - to the brink of the abyss. It may be, however, that in a few years sentiment will be changed (for the better), hence the current can be seen as a correction, even if marked, rather than as the end!

Also on that article, however, my attention was directed mainly to the market of commodities and - despite the ups and downs in recent months and in particular, the bursting of the bubble (in this regard, refer to this predictive post and to the updated chart below) - I confirm my opinion that the basic trend remains structurally bullish, given the same imbalance between supply and demand: maybe the market not come back quickly on reckless levels of last July, but a gradual uptrend should resume again.

Original post: Ancora su Kondratiev

Record outflow from funds in 2008

According to the EPFR Global, which deals since 1995 in collecting and providing data on the asset management market in the world, investors in 2008 have removed some 320 billion from mutual funds (excluding money market products), a record in absolute terms and in terms of percentage of assets managed, in one of the largest movements of flight to quality that the industry has ever seen. The year 2007 was concluded with positive net inflows.

Other than losses for redemptions above you must also consider the disappointing performance, especially on equity. The result of potential outflows, however, is underestimated by the fact that many hedge funds during the year have suspended or limited / slowed operations redemptions. Perhaps questionable decision, but also permitted (at least in most cases) to the meaning of regulation.

Many of the redemptions have been fed in the type of monetary funds, whose total assets under management reached a record level, $ 3720 billion. Yet even this type of funds has not been immune from the crisis, especially for the exhibition more or less directly to the world of residential mortgages, even subprimes. In terms of performance, in addition, often the numbers were extremely low, sometimes close to zero, both for investors for the same management company.

The trend of net outflows seems being slowed down, indeed, in the final weeks of the year, is being reversed: the equity funds, which closed 2008 with outflows totaling $ 233.5 billions (see chart below), in December saw positive flows of $ 32 billions, while monthly outflows from fixed income funds were limited to 3.5 billion, less than in previous months. The figures include both retail investors than institutional, excluding money funds.


Certainly the results of a single month can not be considered conclusive for the development of a new trend, but it is a signal that I think potentially favorable for stabilizing the equity markets: investors, including institutionals, are perhaps beginning to accumulate positions on equity, based on fundamentals of medium to long term, rather than on technical or short term reasons, and in the (usual) hope that the worst is now behind us.



Original post: Deflusso record dai fondi nel 2008

AC Finanza cambia indirizzo!

AC Finanza lascia Blogger (almeno per ora...) e si trasferisce su un nuovo indirizzo, quello che mi è stato messo a disposizione dal sito di informazione economico-finanziaria Investire Oggi.

In realtà, a partire da qualche settimana è iniziata una nuova collaborazione, dopo quella già in essere con Trend Online: le mie pagine web sono entrate a fare parte di un vero e proprio Blog Network finanziario, una novità nel panorama italiano, che ritengo possa incontrare l'interesse di molti ed avere un buon successo.


Da oggi, quindi, per chi volesse ancora seguirmi, non resta che dare un'occhiata al mio nuovo indirizzo...

http://ac-finanza.investireoggi.it/

... e metterlo tra i preferiti!