About liquidity, loans and savings

In these days characterized by a cautious return of investor interest towards equity markets, sparked largely by the renewed and decisive intervention of the Obama, I've again the desire to talk about liquidity, loans, savings.

I believe that these issues are fundamental, even for being able to help determine the potential of the current stock rebound, which, however, must still take into consideration the negative newsflows from macroeconomy and / or from company, that I still wait for in the coming months.

As I already told in the system there is an enormous amount of liquidity parked, waiting for better times.

In support of this conclusion I propose this other new chart, always focused on the United States (but it would not be very different for the other main areas of reference).

Surely the excess liquidity imply risk of inflation, but on the other hand, it also has a potential power to sustain a recovery, or at least, a consolidation of the financial markets, in particular equities.

Moreover, the circuit of credit, which could attract, at least in part, the liquidity is still substantially blocked: neither business nor the families are feeding it with requests for loans, as evidenced by the chart below.

The following graph contribution, however, shows another parallel phenomenon, which, from my point of view, is extremely positive in order to restore a proper balance in the macroeconomic fundamentals of the U.S. system.

Not only there isn't request for capital, but it is feeding the virtuous circuit of savings, the impact of which is not as high as in a decade.

In short, there is no need to become suddenly and completely optimists about the prospects of the economy and markets, but I think at least it is absolutely legitime the expectation of not repeating in the coming months, the past experience of hannus horribilis 2008.

Stay tuned.

Original post: In tema di liquidità, prestiti e risparmio