More about Kondratiev

I have had time only today to read an interesting post of my colleague Dream Theater on the K cycles and their application to financial markets today.

In this regard, if indeed the turning point and the start of the (super)cycle of economy and markets will be 2010, I think we could certainly call "lucky", given the negative trend of recent months, but also in the light of data released more recently: for example, according to the ADP report of yesterday (see chart below), during the month of December 2008 would have been lost as well as 693mila jobs!

That said, however, I returned to my mind an old post - dating back to 30 July 2007 and inclusive of a comment of Dream Theather - in which I described the theory of the waves of Kondratiev, focusing on economic supercycles during 50 to 60 years, of which the fifth, a.k.a. the Age of informatics and telecommunications, would be still in progress and would have another few decades of life ...

Certainly the events since 2007 easily expose this idea to strong criticism, because today the financial world is considered - by almost everyone - to the brink of the abyss. It may be, however, that in a few years sentiment will be changed (for the better), hence the current can be seen as a correction, even if marked, rather than as the end!

Also on that article, however, my attention was directed mainly to the market of commodities and - despite the ups and downs in recent months and in particular, the bursting of the bubble (in this regard, refer to this predictive post and to the updated chart below) - I confirm my opinion that the basic trend remains structurally bullish, given the same imbalance between supply and demand: maybe the market not come back quickly on reckless levels of last July, but a gradual uptrend should resume again.

Original post: Ancora su Kondratiev